The Day After

Thought Leadership on Ukraine’s Future Independence

by Marcelo Cardarelli MD, MPH

Those of us who were very familiar with the Ukraine antebellum and have witnessed firsthand the wounds inflicted in the flesh and upon the soul of its inhabitants by the unforgivable Russian invasion, we question what Ukraine will be the day after.

The day after the war is over, could be weeks, months, or years away. We do not know what the map of Ukraine will look like. And depending on the outcome and its internal consequences, we can’t even envision how Russia’s map will look either.

But there are some quasi-certainties we can likely bet on: A nation called Ukraine will continue to exist. Western countries cannot, and will not, afford to allow Russia to succeed under penalty of encouraging China to take over Taiwan against the will of its people, potentially triggering WWIII.

But above all, we can almost certainly predict that the surviving Ukraine will be very different from the original. As a young country released from the chains of the Soviet Union, Ukraine conducted itself following the old ways of every communist regime, which included corruption, bribery, extortion and grifting, which were abundant in politics. Or rather just abundant.

But too much blood has permeated Ukrainian soil. Too many young people have lost their lives fighting against the essence of authoritarian regimes. Russia embodies corruption, bribery, extortion and grifting and it seems very unlikely that surviving Ukrainians will tolerate going back to the old ways. Too much has been paid in tears to now pretend nothing has happened. 

Among the many failures of Putin, forging the birth of a new civil, law-abiding European country on its borders will likely be the one he regrets the most, providing he himself survives his own adventure.

ABOUT MARCELO CARDARELLI MD, MPH

Marcelo Cardarelli MD, MPH is a pediatric cardiac surgeon who has worked internationally for decades providing life-saving cardiac care to children in conflict-affected countries and throughout the developing world. Marcelo has traveled to Ukraine several times, including twice since Russia’s all-out invasion of the country, which began on February 24, 2022. Marcelo is a founding board member of the Novick Cardiac Alliance and a participating member of Ramro Global’s Advisory Council.