Whatever the underlying motivation for Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, February 24, 2022, is the day he targeted the Achilles-heel of European energy policy. Russian forces predictably and immediately attacked Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, with nuclear power plants[1], hydro-power dams[2], and natural gas pipelines as their primary targets. Their objectives were to seize control where practical, destroying where most expedient. The territory captured by the invasion hosts some of the largest energy infrastructure and industrial infrastructure in Europe.

For those unfamiliar with how western Europe gets much of its energy, pay attention, it’s a both a lesson and a warning.

The temerity of Russia’s unprovoked aggression against Ukraine and invasion compels us to reset our assumptions on energy policy. It underpins our human connectedness and our dependency on energy and the ease with which that dependency can be severed.

Mr. Putin’s unfolding aggression presents a new calculus in geo-politics; a ‘James Bond-styled” villainous and unhinged plot to bring a group of nations to their knees. It’s a scenario that is hard to plan for: an immediate invasion that is a violation of sovereignty, a willful attack on Europe’s energy supply, a crippling blow to Europe’s most productive agricultural nation and a ballooning humanitarian disaster that will likely stretch way beyond the conflict zone; and it’s a reality that is harder to address.

The Ukraine invasion will impact European and global energy policy for decades. It is a chilling, back-to-the-future sort of moment. It should be a wake-up call for our collective conscience. Hence forth, our guiding principle in energy policy must be, more for me is more for you.

The invasion of Ukraine reinforces the broader concerns about energy security and our global dependence on energy. The reaction of other nations to a giddy opportunism created by inconsistently applied sanctions against Russia should be noted. Why would India suddenly become the third largest oil buyer of Russian oil post sanctions? S&P Global, a commodity pricing agency, do solid work in capturing the sobering reality of opportunism, with an oil flow tracker[3]. It sheds light on the murky side of the oil trade.

Trading alliances are hard to enforce when nations act individually. When we act collectively, we have tremendous power. We continue to choose to neglect our responsibility to trade effectively. Mr. Putin knows that and has been testing Western resolve and adjusting his treatment of the West for decades. If you haven’t been following along, it’s been a major factor in Mr. Putin’s calculus of how to stick it to the west that he’s developed as his modus operandi since the 1990’s [4]. 

The invasion is a microcosm of that more challenging global energy narrative. In our thrill of globalization, we choose to overlook the real costs and impacts that our thirst for easy brings. We looked afar to exploit global resources in the pursuit of record profits. All of this is made possible by cheap transport (human ingenuity), but largely because we turn a blind eye to the outsourcing of the real costs: pollution and environmental destruction.

Our connection to energy is so integrated into our 21st century lives that severing that connection has a profoundly chaotic, emotionally challenging, and economically discombobulating impact. It is why all nations will need to look harder at how they buy their energy and with whom they trade. ENTSO-E, the grid operator in Europe, ingeniously connected Ukraine to the European grid in a few weeks, showing that when pushed we can react. It underscores the interconnected nature of our energy systems and our interconnected economies and the need to be proactive with sustainable energy options.  

Mr. Putin is prepared to test Western resolve and diplomacy to its fullest extent. He understands the power of energy and the impact lack of energy has in forcing decisions. Ukraine represents a first strike on western economies, a sort of reverse sanction. Mr. Putin has sent a chilly message to western Europe leaders: Russia can do what it wants, he can call the shots. He can hold western Europe to ransom because the fear of an escalating conflict is Russia’s ultimate reinforcement of his veiled foreign policy position: “What are you going to do? Invade Russia?”

World leaders need to pay closer attention and unify their efforts, because if you think it can’t happen to you, Ukraine shows you and your cabinet’s that you should think again.

ABOUT MICHAEL CARTER

Michael Carter is the president of E-Source, a solutions-based research, consulting, and data science firm based in Boulder, Colorado that has been a change agent in the utility sector for over 30 years. He’s also a contributor to Ramro Global’s Advisory Council.

[1] There are numerous sources to investigate further. Soviet Russia built a series of 5 pressurized water reactors in the early 1980’s the largest of which was Zaporizhzhia- a 5,750MW monster. It supplied over half of Ukraine power until March 22, 2022 and since then has been seized by Russian troops. There’s a sister power plant nearby, the 2,350MW Zaporizhzhia thermal plant- a coal-fired generator. Zaporizhzhia has been a strategic part of the European energy system for decades.   

[2] Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, a 380MW dam and irrigation project on the Dneiper River, was destroyed June 6th, 2023, allegedly by Russian sympathizers, releasing catastrophic flooding down value and devastating the agricultural irrigation system.

[3] https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_files/en/specialreports/oil/global-oil-flow-tracker/index.html

[4] https://www.npr.org/2022/02/12/1080205477/history-ukraine-russia